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DAILY COMMENTARY FROM INSIDE THE SYSTEM

Whipsaw City
David Goldring
Friday, September 03, 2010

Another broad based buying effort sent stocks surging higher for a second straight gain ahead of Today’s non-farm payroll report. The major indices have gained almost 5% since Tuesday’s low. So much for our prediction that any upside would be limited ahead of Friday’s report. The Ts indicators closed at 0.91 and 0.97 and are one more decisive up session away from both moving above 1.00 to signal an Up/Dn condition. We call the Up/Dn condition the “sucker rally” condition because of its tenden...

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Ts Executive Portfolio
David Goldring
Published: Wednesday, February 03, 2010

The Ts indicators closed at 0.94 and 0.88 and as both are below 1.00 we are in a Downtrend condition. However as the 10 week moving average is above the 50 week moving average on the S&P 500 we are said to be in a DN/UP condition. Now that the market has rallied back a little and mended the Oversold condition, we want to start adding more short side exposure. Today we will short the following at the market opening price;


1) Axciom Corp (ACXM – 15.60) we will short 640 shares at the market opening price. Technically ACXM has been moving steadily higher, up 1505 since its panic lows, but is now running right into its down sloping 200 week average. Fundamentally this heavily indebted interactive marketing firm is trading at a generous 21x the Mar ’11 eps estimate. Place stop at $16.75

2) Cabot Corp (CBT – 28.85) we will short 350 shares at the market opening price. Technically CBT has rallied more than 200% from the panic lows, but is now moving right into its down sloping 200 week average. Fundamentally this heavily indebted specialty chemicals company is trading at 15x earnings; which for a company that made more money in 1995 and 2001 is fairly generous for a non growth cyclical. Place stop at $31.10.

3) Elizabeth Arden (RDEN – 16.46) we will short 600 shares at the market opening price. Technically RDEN has quadrupled from the panic lows, but has rallied right into its down sloping 200 week average. Fundamentally this stodgy, heavily indebted cosmetic company trades at 16x the Jun ’11 estimate, which again, for a perennial non grower is generous. Place stop at $17.75




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