Trading Notes : Trading Notes

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Trading Notes
Trading Notes
David Goldring
Friday, November 19, 2004

We will be watching the action on INTC today. The August high was 24.99 and the down sloping 200-day is 24.98. The stock is right under this resistance and we are looking at it as a proxy for the SOX and in turn the Nasdaq. It’s a critical technical juncture. We would expect INTC to back off here.
Our longs on average continue to outperform the shorts and while our capital increases, we are still looking for an opening to take off the hedge and trade with conviction. You can’t make money without conviction. We need either a big frothy spike in front of thanksgiving, or a pullback towards the 20-day average. For now we wait.

GOAM has been a good call, ½ position left, stopping out above 10, KFX could be on way to full swing at 15.70, staying with ½.VRSN right there towards March 02 high, actually tried LNG yesterday unsuccessfully. Cover FLEX close above 15. Down to a ½ on STM. KR moving our way. SOHU closed below pivot but o.k. for now. Cover FDRY on close above 13.65. SNPS trying to pull away. MCD bounced off 20-day exactly. Positive reversal on ELAB. Almost on URBN.

LONGS

Oil Sector (OSX - 120.76) reclaimed 50-day pivot convincingly. Bodes well for PETD. Also buying EOG just breaking away. RIG scored big break out, buy any weakness. Like NBR. AHC can go a long way.200-day marked exact low on SII. PTEN set to move to mid 20,s. We focused too much on OSX 200-day and should have bought the individual charts, but looking for OSX to now trade towards 140, where it was in 1997! With oil substantially lower in price.

Comstock Resc (CRK - 20.12) good fundamentals, trying to move off 200-day average. Buying here.

First Horizon Pharma (FHRX - 22.73) recently raised guidance, back at 50-day average which is 22.10. Looking to buy towards there.

Amedisys (AMED - 31.85) almost $6 in free cash, subtracting out very low p/e to forward estimate. Buy on pullback towards 50-day at 31.

Caraustar Inds (CSAR - 14.61) from our Ts holding portfolio which has seen several big winners. 200-day at 13.93. Looking to buy.

Ventiv Health (VTIV - 17.57) pulled back fro 20, into 50-day, rapidly growing company can support higher valuation. Buying here.

SHORTS

Pmc Sierra (PMCS - 12.02) putting on radar, rapidly approaching down moving 200-day at 12.95

Teradyne (TER - 18.01) will run into trouble at down moving 200-day at 18.95. Semicondutors also running into major resistance.