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Trading Notes
Trading Notes
David Goldring
Tuesday, November 16, 2004

So much for seeing strength in the price of oil. The oil service sector (OSX - 115) has gone from breaking out to breaking down in one day. It now looks to be rolling over and we may finally see a test of the 200-day average towards 108. Watch this group, for if it does test its 200-day average, it will be time to not only get long energy, but possibly to short the market as well.
Our longs certainly did well yesterday, as BRCM,SOHU,TRZ,UTSI,SWIR,FCS all marched convincingly higher, and CSCO bounced where we said it would and so did YUM. MALL did test the old high and backed off ¾, but not enough to convince us the present up move was over. Continue to monitor yesterday’s notes for potential set ups, and here are some additional trading thoughts.

SHORTS

Provide Commerce (PRVD - 34.24) up almost 50% in 3 days. Major long term swing at 39.35, which would be good place for this stock to came back to earth a little

Taser (TASR - 60.85) if the present advance is going to stop, it will be around the old April high of 64.15

Doubleclick (DCLK - 7.90) has rallied right to the underside of its down moving 200-day average, may see a pullback here.

Foundry (FDRY - 12.83) rallying into down moving 200 - day average at 13.59. Would be time to lean short.

Airlines (XAL - 57.59) are up over 40% in less than a month. Extended. Looking to short (AMR - 9.73) at down moving 200-day at 10.50, (NWAC - 10.58) at down trend line at 11.10, and (DAL - 7.50) towards April high at 8.50

Healthcare (HMO - 1111) initially collapsed on news of Spitzer investigation, then exploded on Bush victory. October high at 1008, October low at 860, suggests swing target of 1156. Very extended right now and looking to start leaning short on further strength PHS,WLP,UNH,ATH etc.

Retailers (RLX - 464.39) getting close to our swing target of 467.26. Got a little “air” in URBN yesterday which is what we are looking for with rest of the group. Think BEBE,ANF,LTD, etc are getting ahead of themselves


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