Bubble of Fear David Goldring Friday, November 21, 2008
The major indices fell not only to new bear market lows yesterday, but amazingly took out the ’02 lows as well. The S&P 500 (752.44) is experiencing the worst two month period in stock market history! This year is on track to be the worst year in stock market history. We have the most consistently oversold condition in history. We would argue that we have the cheapest valuations in history (when c...
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StockPicks Cash Rich Technology Index David Goldring
November, 17, 2008 - The index closed at 823.01
November, 6, 2008 - The index closed at 938.80
October, 31, 2008 - The index closed at 1031.90
October, 30, 2008 - The index closed at 1003.30
October, 29, 2008 - The index closed at 956.20
October, 28, 2008 - The index closed at 932.80
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The major indices fell not only to new bear market lows yesterday, but amazingly took out the ’02 lows as well. The S&P 500 (752.44) is experiencing the worst two month period in stock market history! This year is on track to be the worst year in stock market history. We have the most consistently oversold condition in history. We would argue that we have the cheapest valuations in history (when c ...
The Ts indicators closed at an all time record low of 0.02, 0.20 . The market closed yesterday as oversold as anytime in the past seventy years. Of the twenty six stocks we have recommended this week, the mean loss is 57% since Nov 4th! Stocks are being sold regardless of value, regardless of worth. More than half the stocks we recommended are trading at less than half of book value, and more than ...
Our Technology Cash Rich Index fell to 755 yesterday and is falling even further this morning. Again, many stocks have more free cash per share on the balance sheet than the present stock price. It is extremely unusual to see this, and is an indication of how stocks are being sold irrespective of any underlying value. Here are a few from our list that are particularly worthy of a mention;
The major indices fell to their lowest levels in five years yesterday as an ugly market got even worse. We are seeing widespread capitulation as investors flee equities in panic fashion. The Nasdaq (1386.42) closed at a level first reached in May ’97, the Philly Semi Index (SOX – 177.10) closed at twelve year lows and back at levels first reached in early ’95. Although revenues per share and book ...
Our Ts indicators closed yesterday at 0.02,0.23. Prior to this historic downturn our second indicator had recorded only one reading below 0.30 and that was under completely different circumstances on April 20th and 24th 2000, after the Nasdaq saw an initial 30% monthly decline from it bubble peek. Yesterday’s close equaled the lowest ever reading of Oct 10th 2008, which was then promptly followed ...
Our Ts indicators closed yesterday at 0.03, 0.26 and we remain deeply oversold. The poorer relative strength stocks continue to be discarded in a truly panic style fashion. At first stocks were trading based on forward earnings predictions, then they fell to book value, then to net tangible book, then to cash and in some instances that isn’t even enough to support stock prices, as many stocks are ...
Hewlett-Packard Guidance Provides Some Optimism David Goldring
The major indices posted sharp losses yesterday, as the economic and corporate news continues to show signs of a dramatic slowdown. This morning the Producer Price Index plunged 2.8% for October, which was to be expected after the dramatic fall in commodity prices. As we have been saying for well over a year, inflation was not and obviously is not a problem. If anything we will have to watch the d ...
The Ts indicators closed at 0.03, 0.28 yesterday. We remain in a deeply oversold condition. Over the past ten years you would have thought we would have seen everything, but no previous oversold condition even comes close to the events of the past two months. Our first indicator has not been able to make it above 0.08 since Oct 1st. The only two other periods where we saw such a sustained level o ...
On Friday our Ts indicators closed at 0.02 and 0.33. Our second indicator has once again fallen below the historically massive capitulation position of 0.35.
Past examples of when we first saw the second indicator fall below 0.35 were October 8th 1998, April 14th 2000, September 20th 2001 and July 23rd 2002. In those four instances the S&P 500 gained an average of 12% over the next calendar ...
Starting today we are going to re-introduce the Ts (Trend sector) model and portfolio on a daily basis. Each day we calculate two numbers, the ten year history of which enables us to gain a valuable insight into predicting stock market behavior. For example, on Friday the Ts indicators closed at 0.02 and 0.33. The first number records the total number of stocks that are in definable Up trends to t ...
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